The civil war brewing within the Republican Party is often framed as a battle between a business-oriented establishment (that is, long-serving Congress members) and younger, ideologically-motivated Tea Party conservatives. In reality, however, the current situation is more of a vast free-for-all than a clear-cut civil war. Party activists all have their own individual messages and followings, which range from civil libertarian to cutthroat reactionary. The Republican political stage has now become a battle for the spotlight.
Perhaps the most significant reason why this “war” has been so difficult to decisively win is that the current predicament has warranted the use of nonconventional battle techniques. Fringe politicians are all trying to get their fifteen minutes of fame at the expense of the nation’s stability. For example, by shutting down the government, Ted Cruz gained national attention and temporarily became a hero to particular constituencies, even though his overall approval ratings took a nosedive. The same is true for filibusterers like Rand Paul, who try to pick an ideological fight and boast of their individual popularity. As long as the Republican Party lacks a central leading voice, there will be a continuous string of attacks from right wing members attempting to fill that role.
Political pundits have been predicting the demise of the Tea Party movement since 2010, but the fierce conservative group refuses to recede. This is partially due to the fact that both sides have found their tension-filled coexistence to be mutually beneficial. If the Tea Party were to disappear, the establishment would lose its dedicated base. If the establishment disintegrated, however, the Tea Partiers themselves would become the new insiders, which is contradictory to their message of unseating career politicians. Unfortunately, with an election on the horizon, further division seems inevitable, and the cold war is heating up. A few recent examples of this include House Speaker John Boehner’s criticism of ultraconservative groups in December and the current treatment of Chris Christie by members of the Tea Party.
Like it or not, 2014 will prove to be a tumultuous year in politics. The races that everyone will be watching are the numerous republican primaries that exemplify the Republicans’ internal struggles. Seven out of the eleven incumbent Senate Republicans up for reelection face far-right challengers. This includes the current Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell. The Senate and the House are within reach of both the Democrats and Republicans this year. However, the composition of these parties is equally as consequential: a Senate held by establishment Republicans would operate far differently than it would under Tea Party control. In the worst-case scenario, the 114th congress will show up its predecessor and become even more ineffective, destructive, and gridlocked. The silver lining then may be that, having already hit rock bottom, our political system would have nowhere to go but up.
So how will this internal struggle end? Not easily. In an arena in which the loudest voice reigns supreme, true harmony within the Republican Party can never really be obtained. The only realistic way to win this war is if the battlefield changes—and that is exactly what 2016 offers. First off, the right will finally be able to stop focusing all of its political efforts on demonizing the Obama Administration and instead begin work on a fresh set of issues. Although attacks on existing liberal institutions like Obamacare are sure to be front and center, conservatives might finally change their agenda from one that prioritizes obstructing the President to one that actually seeks to win the office for their party.
Second, 2016 means a set of primaries not only for Republicans, but for Democrats as well. Even if Hillary Clinton becomes a clear front-runner, a primary means that the Democrats can no longer be as united, and as quiet, as they have been for the past five years. Some radical left-wing candidates may even attract a few libertarians from the right, thereby allowing the Republican Party to narrow its message and target a more agreeable base. If my predictions are correct, then the advantage may be on the establishment side. Only time will tell how this battle plays out. Until then, it would appear that we are indeed doomed to live through the tiresome political struggle that is the GOP civil war.